NutritionFacts

56 Comments

    • U.S. Dollar Shaking Off Risk Aversion [view article]
      All can see is a consolidation at the moment on the DX. We are waiting patiently to see if the euro will break above 1.57 on its way to 1.60; or not. Jul 25 03:15 PM
    • Natural Gas Volatility Spiking [view article]
      Huge spike down today on the storage numbers. Looks for all the world like a blow-off bottom in the price and corresponding blow-off top in the volatility of NG alluded to above. Jul 24 05:27 PM
    • Financials: How - And When - We Reached the Bottom [view article]
      I heard there are about 100 other banks on the verge of going the same way as IndyMac et al. Can't remember where though.
      Frankly it's ridiculous to think you can pin the tail on the donkey like this. Any serious trader/investor would know that. More than ridiculous; dangerous.       Jul 24 05:18 PM
    • Outlook for Oil: 2008 Thus Far and a Preview of Coming Attractions [view article]
      Thanks Jim for putting the effort into this article. It makes an interesting read, regardless of one's viewpoint. Mar 06 05:13 PM
    • A Short Comment on Shorting [view article]
      Shorting: more difficult, definitely, but only because of the occupational hazard of The Squeeze. This does have the perverse advantage though of minimising portfolio risk: I am more conservative with my short positions simply because they are more risky.
      Timing is everything.

       Feb 24 10:45 AM
    • Commodity Analysts Believe the Party's Over [view article]
      Wow. Some strongly held opinions here, nearly all of them in the 'this is just the beginning' camp. The crux of the 'this is just the beginning, there is no way back' camp's argument, is that there is just too much demand and not enough supply, and the situation is only going to get worse.
      Hmm. So, all of you, how much exactly of the rise in the prices of these commodities is due to 'too much demand and not enough supply'? You all implicitly believe that that, and that alone, is responsible for the rises in the prices of these commodities. I am astounded. I mean, you all have *such insight* into the individual trades pushing up these prices. You are all very lucky.
      Personally, I am inclined to see the consensus of views here as the nascent beginnings at least of a contrarian indicator.       Feb 23 12:00 PM
    • Dow 15,000 Will Be Here Sooner Than You Think [view article]
      "Remember in 03 and 04 when we had our ‘jobless recovery’? Markets did great and the economy did only pretty good. Look for that again this year."

      Erm, markets did great in 03, yes, in percentage terms, from low to high, but that said they only recovered up to early 02's high after having cratered by 30+% throughout 02, and indeed in 04 they did nothing but go sideways. But, in any case, are we at the same stage in the cycle now as we were then (i.e. in early 03)? Have the markets dropped by 30% (yet)? Are the issues being faced the same as they were back then? Er, it looks to me like it's no, no and no. So, maybe you're right, but maybe, you're wrong.       Feb 10 09:20 AM
    • Unique Opportunity in Blackstone Group [view article]
      There must be very good arguments against buying a company whose existence seems to be predicated on the easy availability of credit, and significant amounts of it at that, at a time when the capital markets are in or going into a tailspin. Feb 10 09:04 AM
    • A Housing Bubble Within a Bubble [view article]
      For Gawdsake, you can't rent forever. It's not *all* about buying at the bottom. And just thank your lucky stars that you're not looking to buy in London. You Yanks can get lovely spacious 6 bedroom houses with 3 bathrooms for peanuts; in London you can't get a 1 bed / 1bath shoebox in a decent area (of which there are not many) for less than 250K (GBP i.e. 500K USD). Feb 10 08:41 AM
    • Remember The 3-Alarm Sell Signal? [view article]
      Indeed. A quick check on 't internet confirms the signal was given in 07, not 06 as marked on the chart. NIL POINTS POUR MONSIEUR BABAK!!!!

      ftalphaville.ft.com/bl.../       Feb 09 09:58 AM
    • What the Housing 'Apocalypse' Prophets Aren't Revealing [view article]
      Ad hominem-esque comments about bulls vs bears are really not that useful. And if you want to get into it, it's taken a bloody long time for all these oh-so-prescient and oh-so-intelligent bears to be proved right. Seems to me that everyone's on one side of the trade. Sometimes that's the right side to be on. Perhaps more often, it is not. Still, in time, we will all be right. Feb 06 02:21 AM
    • Inflationists vs. Deflationists: Who's Right? [view article]
      "Those of us in the very small group that has correctly anticipated that past excesses would eventually come home to roost".

      Give yourself a pat on the back, why don't you. And for how long have you been 'anticipating' this event, may I ask?       Jan 20 07:12 AM
    • Percentage of Stocks Above Their 50-DMAs Finally Oversold [view article]
      I just went to your blog Toto-13 and it's [Comment edited for abusive language. Commenter put on notice]. Jan 20 07:03 AM
    • Semiconductors, Financials Due for a Rally [view article]
      Inclined to agree. FWIW SNDK posted a 0.9% rise on Friday. I see that on Wednesday it closed a gap that has remained open since it occurred way back in July 05. Jan 13 12:23 PM
    • Lehman Ups Its Year-End Price Target for the S&P 500 [view article]
      You ought to post a post-end-of-2007 review on this; it would be quite instructive. Jan 10 06:32 PM
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