For All The Shouting, This Is Still A Normal Correction [View article]
lets see, working class folks who availed themselves of the safety net when the breadwinner lost his job in the Obama years but shockingly vote Republican. You sound like that Democrat Congresscritter who claims all the unemployed will vote Obama/Democrat to keep the freebies flowing. Maybe they'll vote for a better economy instead so he can work. Or just maybe, they are voting for who they think will be better for the country not just for them. and that's wrong?
Let's hear you complain about the multi-millionaires like Elizabeth Warren who wants to raise taxes on the 'rich' but when asked why she used a mass state loophole to pay less state income taxes (there are 2 rates in that state), her defense was the law let her do it. Funny how these hypocrite liberals talk compassion, fairness and 'paying forward' but dont do it themselves.
For All The Shouting, This Is Still A Normal Correction [View article]
... correct FDR and LBJ... and Obama is trying to be the third incarnation of those two Big Government Expansionists, with his Govt takeover of healthcare.
Obama has used for his campaign the slogan "Forward!" a phrase the Communists used in their own sloganeering.
For All The Shouting, This Is Still A Normal Correction [View article]
the one who has NOT raised taxes once in his presidency"
This is completely 100% NOT TRUE. One of many Obama lies/myths. One of the first bills Obama signed, in Jan 2009, increased taxes on smokers to pay for spending expansion (SCHIP). Since then, he increased taxes by $1 trillion in obamacare /AHA and signed other bills that have increased various taxes. Medicare and payroll tax increase, medical device taxes, tanning salons, hospital insurance tax, cadiallac healthcare tax, lower FSA limits, the list goes on. You can add to that many increased business costs via mandates in the healthcare law.
In truth, the Obamacare bill was the largest tax increase imposed in decades. See: http://bit.ly/JcU8tE
3 Deeply Undervalued Stocks To Buy Now [View article]
It's nothin to do with war unless you mean the Democrats' war on drilling. Open up offshore and allow oil shale exploration in the rockies and US activity would boom.
The Economy Grows Under The Shadow Of Recession [View article]
More Government spending doesnt help, it only displaces private spending and investment and actually perpetuates the problems of malinvestment long-term. The $6 trillion in debt added in the last 4 years is $6 trillion in capital that has been sucked from private investment opportunities, and the Fed's balance sheet took on much of it, which is why rates arent higher. The 10yr yield is a function of flight-to-safety of investments and the ZIRP policies of the Fed. It doesnt mean inflation isnt a long-term issue or debts can be added without restraint.
If we want to unleash animal spirits in the economy, the prescription of tax reform (lower rates), incentivizing production via deregulation where possible (eg repeal Obamacare), and keeping interest rates low via credible path to fiscal balance would be the correct combination.
For All The Shouting, This Is Still A Normal Correction [View article]
Up to the 1340, then down to 1270 in june marking the low, then greece doesnt implode when they decide they want to stay in the Euro and the ECB finds another $100b under a mattress to support the system, and we head back up in a choppy fashion, we dont have a recession but continued 2% growth, with a bull run after Romney is elected in nov to end the year at 1450.
Is that what you want? that kind of specific prediction? :-) I'll have to clip and save and see if I'm right. But the funny thing is ... I have no idea, neither does the author.
A new poll puts the right-wing New Democracy party back in the lead in Greece with 26.1%, ahead of the anti-austerity SYRIZA, which had been well out in front last week. Crucially, New Democracy and the Socialist PASOK party would have enough seats to form a pro-bailout government. [View news story]
Greece's interest is to first stay in the Euro and not become a 3rd world country and 2nd to get a pro-growth policy to help them out of the depression. The least bad option is the new democracy party. Hopefully they will get a good mandate as voters come to their senses, and at least one macro risk will be taken off the table as the EU kicks that can down the road.
Oh please. Obama has spent 25% of our GDP on Federal spending, higher than ever before in our history save for WWII, and his budgets promise more deficits and more spending than ever. He has vetoed and resisted any attempts to curb his borrow-and-spend habits. He has signed into law over a $1 trillion in new taxes, much of it in that tax-regulate-and-spend monstrosity called Obamacare, the largest expansion of government control into our economy in our lifetimes. His regulatory actions have been severe, with higher regulation costs and more pages of regulations added than any prior president. Calling tax-borrow-spend leftist Obama a 'centrist' is beyond wrong, its insulting and idiotic.
Yes, the market 'forecast' non-recessions in 2001 and 2010.
I for one was suckered in by ECRI's bad call, worrying needlessly at the wrong time and selling at the worst time because I had respect for ECRI. No more.
I am following the super-index now, and its flashing slow US growth and no recession as for now, as most models (including WLI!!!) are.
"Saying last Sept. there was another imminent recession was incorrect. The market has done great."
The market is not relevent. What is relevent is two quarters of GDP growth recorded, accelerating from last summer, and 150,000 jobs/month on average added.
Whether we fall into a recession anytime soon or not, its clear that the 'imminent recession' call of last september was erroneous. If it was going to be 'sometime in the next 12 months' they should not have said "imminent". Their continued calls for a recession, when the data dont indicate it is justified, appears to be digging in deeper in hopes events will 'prove you right'. In short, if he withdraws his call now, he has lost credibility. If by chance some shock puts us in a recession, he can claim he was 'early' not 'wrong'.
I agree. This weakest recovery since WWII is related to the most anti-business administration in our lifetimes. #1 is the hit from Obamacare, which is huge but never mentioned in the pro-Obama press. This alone is stifling job growth significantly. The economy will mysteriously improve if and when the anti-business demagogues like Obama are no longer in charge.
Does that make our current status a recession? No.
U.S. Economy: 4 Simple Reasons Recession Lies Ahead [View article]
That's a nominal growth of 3.8% in the past year. Take out inflation of 2% and its creeping at a sloooow pace of under 2%. Consistent with the GDP headline #s ie 2.2% in Q1. I dont see a recession - i see an economy in neutral. The recession alert superindex does not forecast a recession and neither do most models.
For All The Shouting, This Is Still A Normal Correction [View article]
Let's hear you complain about the multi-millionaires like Elizabeth Warren who wants to raise taxes on the 'rich' but when asked why she used a mass state loophole to pay less state income taxes (there are 2 rates in that state), her defense was the law let her do it. Funny how these hypocrite liberals talk compassion, fairness and 'paying forward' but dont do it themselves.
For All The Shouting, This Is Still A Normal Correction [View article]
For All The Shouting, This Is Still A Normal Correction [View article]
Obama has used for his campaign the slogan "Forward!" a phrase the Communists used in their own sloganeering.
For All The Shouting, This Is Still A Normal Correction [View article]
This is completely 100% NOT TRUE. One of many Obama lies/myths.
One of the first bills Obama signed, in Jan 2009, increased taxes on smokers to pay for spending expansion (SCHIP). Since then, he increased taxes by $1 trillion in obamacare /AHA and signed other bills that have increased various taxes. Medicare and payroll tax increase, medical device taxes, tanning salons, hospital insurance tax, cadiallac healthcare tax, lower FSA limits, the list goes on. You can add to that many increased business costs via mandates in the healthcare law.
In truth, the Obamacare bill was the largest tax increase imposed in decades. See:
http://bit.ly/JcU8tE
3 Deeply Undervalued Stocks To Buy Now [View article]
The Economy Grows Under The Shadow Of Recession [View article]
If we want to unleash animal spirits in the economy, the prescription of tax reform (lower rates), incentivizing production via deregulation where possible (eg repeal Obamacare), and keeping interest rates low via credible path to fiscal balance would be the correct combination.
For All The Shouting, This Is Still A Normal Correction [View article]
Is that what you want? that kind of specific prediction? :-)
I'll have to clip and save and see if I'm right. But the funny thing is ... I have no idea, neither does the author.
A new poll puts the right-wing New Democracy party back in the lead in Greece with 26.1%, ahead of the anti-austerity SYRIZA, which had been well out in front last week. Crucially, New Democracy and the Socialist PASOK party would have enough seats to form a pro-bailout government. [View news story]
Hopefully they will get a good mandate as voters come to their senses, and at least one macro risk will be taken off the table as the EU kicks that can down the road.
Recession Forecast Reaffirmed [View article]
Contango And Backwardation's Relationship To VIX Futures Convergence [View article]
"VXX represents a VIX future expiring in exactly one month"
You have managed to boil down a very complex instrument into a single sentence. Well done, and good blog.
Recession Forecast Reaffirmed [View article]
You obviously havent read his autobiography, have you.
Recession Forecast Reaffirmed [View article]
I for one was suckered in by ECRI's bad call, worrying needlessly at the wrong time and selling at the worst time because I had respect for ECRI. No more.
I am following the super-index now, and its flashing slow US growth and no recession as for now, as most models (including WLI!!!) are.
Recession Forecast Reaffirmed [View article]
The market is not relevent. What is relevent is two quarters of GDP growth recorded, accelerating from last summer, and 150,000 jobs/month on average added.
Whether we fall into a recession anytime soon or not, its clear that the 'imminent recession' call of last september was erroneous. If it was going to be 'sometime in the next 12 months' they should not have said "imminent". Their continued calls for a recession, when the data dont indicate it is justified, appears to be digging in deeper in hopes events will 'prove you right'. In short, if he withdraws his call now, he has lost credibility. If by chance some shock puts us in a recession, he can claim he was 'early' not 'wrong'.
Recession Forecast Reaffirmed [View article]
Does that make our current status a recession? No.
U.S. Economy: 4 Simple Reasons Recession Lies Ahead [View article]