MARKET CURRENTS
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MARKET CURRENTS
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Today - Thursday, February 23, 2012
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10:03 AM Jan. Mass Layoffs: 1,434 mass layoff events (at least 50 workers), resulting in 129K job losses (seasonally adjusted). +50 events from December's mark. Comment!
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10:01 AM Dec. FHFA Housing Price Index: +0.7% month-on-month, vs. +1% in November. Year-on-year, prices are -0.8%. Comment!
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10:00 AM Ultra-low interest rates can't last forever: The Atlanta Fed's survey (.pdf) of business leaders indicates a higher level of concern over long-term inflation than seen from the projections of FOMC members. Respondents on average predict inflation to run up 2.9% over the next 5 to 10 years, while a healthy 29% see prices kicking up between 3.1% and 5%. 1 Comment
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9:30 AM Art Cashin turns his eye to oil, noting Rich Yamarone's observation that every U.S. recession since 1971 has been proceeded by an advance in the price. Currently up 7% YTD against an economy already barely moving forward, oil and gasoline prices may not yet be crippling, but they're headed in that direction. (earlier) Comment!
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9:17 AM "Our job is not to prop up the Street," Dallas Fed chief Fisher tells CNBC, saying he sees no need for QE3. The economy appears to be doing much better, but unlike this time last year, Fisher is not musing about rate hikes. ZIRP, he says, should continue while unemployment remains elevated. Fisher is not a voter on the FOMC this year. Comment!
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8:33 AM Initial Jobless Claims: Unchanged at 351K vs. last week's revised figure and 355K consensus. Continuing claims -52K to 3.39M. 1 Comment
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8:20 AM Nomura pokes a small hole in the recent improvement in jobless claims, noting seasonal distortions are skewing the read. In recent years, claims have peaked in late August/early September and bottomed in February as Labor Department statisticians may be off in their adjustments. 2 Comments
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7:56 AM The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate climbed 6 basis points to a one-month high of 4.16% last week, according to Bankrate. Other benchmarks rose as well, the 15-year up 3 bps to 3.38% and the 5/1 up 9 bps to 3.12%. Comment!
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7:07 AM The SEC considers fees aimed at slowing down high-frequency trading after criticism over the influence of the computer-driven trading and its potential to create out-of-control flash crashes mounts. One remedy on the table is requiring high-frequency traders to pay for the canceled trades that make up 90% of all orders. Comment!
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6:38 AM U.S. stock futures push slightly higher in advance of this week's jobless claims report set for release at 8:30 AM EST. S&P +0.1%, Dow +0.1%. 1 Comment
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5:29 AM The U.K. and Japan are urging the U.S. to rewrite the Volcker Rule, concerned trading restrictions on U.S. banks could hit sovereign debt markets at a particularly fragile moment. In a high-profile expression of their concern, U.K. finmin George Osborne and Japanese counterpart Jun Azumi have written an op-ed in the FT. Comment!
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Wednesday, February 22, 2012
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8:10 PM President Obama signs the payroll tax bill into law, which will extend payroll-tax cuts through the end of 2012, prolong extended unemployment benefits, and prevent a cut in pay for doctors who treat Medicare patients. The House and Senate passed the bill last week. 18 Comments
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7:50 PM With the market up over 8% for the year, and more than 20% from last October's lows, Doug Kass says the next big market move is lower. He's putting his money where his mouth is too, now holding his largest net short position of the year. “There are good advances and bad advances – this one is bad,” Kass says. If history is any indication, a sell-off is coming. 16 Comments
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6:15 PM The head of AerCap (AER), one of the world's largest aircraft leasing firms, warns that Airbus (EADSY.PK) and Boeing (BA) are building too many planes, with some recent big orders unlikely to be completed in full. "Is it realistic that a small airline in Indonesia is the largest customer of the world's largest exporter?" CEO Aengus Kelly says of Boeing's 230-plane order from Lion Air. Comment!
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5:45 PM Improving data (I, II, III) pushes Deutsche Bank analysts to believe housing has entered a real recovery: "We wonder if forecasters have counted this sector out for so long that they are overlooking the possibility that it could pose an unexpected mild boost to the [economy] in the year ahead." But it's too soon to declare victory, as millions of homes still wait to be put on sale by distressed owners and banks. 3 Comments
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5:02 PM "I have great confidence the Fed is ultimately going to get their way," says Lee Cooperman, explaining the bear case on Treasurys. "I don't think people understand how risky a U.S. government bond is at 2% return." He's keeping his money in what has worked - gold, the S&P, Apple (AAPL), and Qualcomm (QCOM), among others. Treasurys have worked too - how about a little love? 4 Comments
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3:56 PM Citigroup's economic surprise index remains at a very high level (meaning the news has been mostly good over the past weeks). If history is any guide, the news is about to turn worse as this read is as mean-reverting as they come. Maybe of most interest is the refusal of the 10-year Treasury to play along - past correlations imply today's yield should be around 5%! Comment!
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3:41 PM Among homebuilder shares, Toll Brothers' (TOL -4.9%) unexpected FQ1 loss outweighs January's rise in U.S. existing home sales: BZH -5.5%, KBH -4.5%, MHO -5.9%, MTH -5.5%, RYL -4.4%. Shares slide despite optimistic remarks from TOL CEO Doug Yearley that "in general the market feels healthier than it did one year ago." Comment!
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2:26 PM Plans for increased small business spending hit a four-year high, as a new survey finds 28% of such business owners plan to increase capital expenditures in the next 12 months. But it's a muddled picture overall, as more businesses still say they've cut spending in the past year vs. those who shelled out funds, and it's still tough to get credit. Comment!
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2:22 PM Boeing (BA +0.6%) announces that it completed delivery of 257 F-18 Super Hornet strike fighters on time and within budget to the U.S. Navy. It's a bit of a minor coup for the company after taking on widespread criticism for its late delivery schedule on 787 Dreamliners. Comment!
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