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Spencer Osborne

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  • Institutional Activity In Sirius XM Could Offer Clues [View article]
    I said if it breaks resistance at $2 it could test the next level up. Breaking $1.91 support makes $1.83 a possibility. Breaking $2.01 resistance could send it to $2.09.

    Remember to watch volume though. These moves need to happen with volume
    May 24 06:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Institutional Activity In Sirius XM Could Offer Clues [View article]
    heady.....

    Again, the process is not a waste of time. It is simply a step that needs to be taken. The biggest issue the agency had in the first appeal was that Liberty had shown no movement to take actual control. They can show such movement now with their forward contract as well as open market purchase. This is more about getting the FCC tenor on Liberty controlling the licenses than anything else.

    As of right now Liberty has much more than they had on the initial filing. They could get even more in the week that is left.
    May 24 06:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Institutional Activity In Sirius XM Could Offer Clues [View article]
    Bocker.....

    Here is a simple way to look at things.

    1. Take the EBITDA guidance given by the company.

    2. Take the market cap (iclude the Liberty stake. Add the value of the debt (or anticipated debt) and subtract cash (or anticipated cash). That gives you Enterprise value

    3. Divide the entreprise value by the ebitda and you arrive at a multiple.

    4. The low end of the multiple is 13 or 14. The high end is up to about 22 or 23.

    When Sirius XM is trading at above 16 or 17 it is trading at a premium. When it is trading below it is at what would be considered low.
    May 24 04:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Institutional Activity In Sirius XM Could Offer Clues [View article]
    bias comes with the territory, but not all bias is strong. Mel did uphold guidance at the meeting. The issue is that this equity trades at a high multiple.

    Most posters are not crooks. Most simply carry an opinion.
    May 24 03:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Institutional Activity In Sirius XM Could Offer Clues [View article]
    bock....

    Sirius XM as a $10 stock is a long way away.

    Using a simple Enterprise value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) Ratio it will take quite some time.

    EV is market cap + debt minus cash.

    currently SIRi is trading at a multiple of 16.5

    To get to $10 we would need to see the market cap increase substantially as well as EBITDA.
    May 24 02:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Institutional Activity In Sirius XM Could Offer Clues [View article]
    Happy.....

    There are certain possibilities that exist from a technical standpoint. When SIRI was trading at $2 i wrote that the technicals dictated a possibility of $1.83. Two days later it was there. The next real support below the $1.83 level (from a technical standopoint is about $1.50 to $1.60.

    Thus, if Sirius XM breaks support at about $1.83, $1.50 is a very real possibility from a technical standpoint.
    May 24 02:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Shareholder Meeting: New Stock Symbol May Be Biggest News [View article]
    yes. There is also a diamond company called Sirius, but I have not heard that one brought up in quite some time.
    May 24 01:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Institutional Activity In Sirius XM Could Offer Clues [View article]
    Simple answer is No, the NOL's are fine.
    May 24 01:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Institutional Activity In Sirius XM Could Offer Clues [View article]
    Gateway....

    I would not characterize Malone as dastardly, or trying to steal anything. He bailed this company out and was handsomely rewarded for it. He now is taking the steps needed to gain control. While the premium (or lack of premium) may not sit well with many, it is something was almost per-ordained some time ago
    May 24 12:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Institutional Activity In Sirius XM Could Offer Clues [View article]
    even though you are a Jets fan and I am a Patriots fan, I will answer....LOL

    De Facto is when someone is essentially in control, but does not have an actual controlling position in the stock (i.e. 50%)

    De Jure would be a company that actually has physical control

    The definitions I gave are oversimplified, but it gives you the sense of the difference
    May 24 12:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Shareholder Meeting: New Stock Symbol May Be Biggest News [View article]
    There was even some confusion when Apple bought SIRI. Some reported that the satellite radio provider was being acquired by Apple when the facts were that a small software company was the entity being acquired.
    May 24 12:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Institutional Activity In Sirius XM Could Offer Clues [View article]
    I agree that Mel is smart. In fact, he is better than smart. The problem is that he had to cut a deal from a very poor stance three years ago, and in doing so lost a lot of leverage.
    May 24 12:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Institutional Activity In Sirius XM Could Offer Clues [View article]
    There are no real "bags" in this in my opinion. Regardless of who "owns" sirius xm, the business will continue and the company will still put up numbers that are impressive
    May 24 12:22 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Institutional Activity In Sirius XM Could Offer Clues [View article]
    I am not so sure of that. Liberty has been very public that they intend to appeal the decision.
    May 24 12:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Shareholder Meeting: New Stock Symbol May Be Biggest News [View article]
    siri is simply the ticker symbol. The branding of a symbol SXM is actually superior to the symbol SIRI. I actually like the idea of changing the ticker
    May 24 12:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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