John Lounsbury
John Lounsbury
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Looking at Stocks for the Long Run [View article]
I bought a 5-year CD linked to the price of gold four years ago this month from Everbank everbank.com/ The principal is FDIC insured and gains are linked to the price of gold.
The bad news about this info is they are not offering that product now. In the past I have also had commodity index linked CDs with Everbank, but they are not offered now, as well.
Other products are FDIC insured CDs in non U.S. currencies, which I have also owned over the past four years and still own today. Right now I have a CD in a basket of currencies in "strong balance sheet countries" (Australia, Brazil, Japan, Singapore and Switzerland). This is called the "debt free CD". I have put quotes around the words used by Everbank.
Looking at Stocks for the Long Run [View article]
Thanks for the alert. I wasn't even watching. When I have held LQD I have usually maintained a 5% trailing stop. I would have been ticked off to have gotten stopped out at the low (101.49) just to see the beast go right back above 112.
Looking at Stocks for the Long Run [View article]
It wobbled April to June but lost only a few percent. July, August and September it has been rocking and rolling. For the year it is up 10-12% not counting dividends, which have a rate above 5% annually. The reason I say 10-12% is that not all portfolios have the same distribution of stocks, so returns vary a little from portfolio to portfolio.
Looking at Stocks for the Long Run [View article]
Your experience parallels mine. I have used two strategies over the past 15 years: (1) A value model that started with PEG and future earnings estimates and narrowed down the resulting field with balance sheet and business stability screens; and (2) a momentum model that used 2 week and 4 week momentum screens for both short and long positions.
The valuation model deviated from historic performance (negatively) in 2007 and I stopped using it 4Q/2007. The momentum model stopped working 1H/2008 and I stopped using it mid-year.
My investing in 2009 and 2010 has been with a few short term (weeks) trades in leveraged stock ETFs, same with energy and commodity ETFs, and longer term holdings of stable high dividend stocks. I had great returns from 1994 through 2006. I have underperformed for 2007 and 2009, but outperformed 2008 and (slightly) in 2010.
I have been way under allocated to stocks since 2H/2007. That was good for 2008 but not good in 2009.
I have not yet been able to develop a consistent model that I would be confident in using so far in the current environment.