John Lounsbury
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Diversifying, Yes; Decoupling, No [View article]
A little added tid-bit of information for your discusssion: I read recently that China (so far in 2009) is the world's largest car market.
Of course, that condition has occurred at this time partly because the U.S. car market has dropped below 10 Million units annual rate, but sales in China have risen dramatically to reach this level.
Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [View article]
You wrote:
"Dr. Sharon Poczatek, who runs her own dental practice in Boulder, Colo., said that she too is trying to figure out ways to get out of paying the taxes proposed in Obama's plan.
"I've put thought into how to get under $250,000," said Poczatek. "It would mean working fewer days which means having fewer employees, seeing fewer patients and taking time off."
"Generally it means being less productive," she said.
"The motivation for a lot of people like me – dentists, entrepreneurs, lawyers – is that the more you work the more money you make," said Poczatek. "But if I'm going to be working just to give it back to the government -- it's de-motivating and demoralizing."
I'll make my comment based on the assumption that Dr. Polczalek's current AGI is $450,000 and she is considering cutting that to $250,000.
Dr. Poczalek will be thanked by other dentists in her community who will be happy to pick up her patients and an extra $200,000 per year, somewhere between $100,000 and $120,000 a year after taxes, depending on where taxes end up after 2010.
If Dr. Polczalek is happy with an after tax income of about $150,000 to $170,000 from an AGI of $250,000 rather than an after tax income of $250,000 to $290,000 from an AGI of $450,000, then she should work less.
I have just estimated federal income taxes and FICA. Of course she will have state income taxes.
Dr. Polczalek would benefit from "running the numbers": But maybe she is just rationalizing wanting to make her own life a little easier in the future.
Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets [View article]
To me they represent strong buying support in that area. Maybe David Frye or others can offer alternative interpretations.
Global Stock Markets: Torrid 2008 Ends with Guarded Hope [View article]
No one wants to comment? I wonder why. It's either (1) so good that no one can find anything to criticize, or (2) so bad that no one wants to bother, or (3) so complex that no one can understand it. The second and third thoughts are obviously wrong. So, congratulations on a great article.
You reminded me of some important short term bench marks and showed a some that I had not been considering. Thanks.
Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [View article]
Thanks for saving me on chart look-up time every day.
VIX Withers Down Below Technical Support After Huge Job Loss Catalyst [View article]
Great article. As a fellow tadpole writhing in the muck, I have noticed one lily pad still growing - U.S. treasuries, as well as two rising currencies (the yen and the dollar). I can't blame you too much for leaving these out, as they may be temporary havens and not really bull markets with legs. If they are bull markets that last, even the muck may dry up.
Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [View article]
Another Bloodbath? [View article]
"One more time ,these record dollar inflows will shortly induce an unprecedented stock market really and meanigfull stability in the housing sector to be followed by the price spike in the real estate market.
This is history in making. The US GDP will attain 5% growth by the second half of 2009.-hard to believe?"
I am putting a copy of this on my bulletin board and suggest you do the same, Gabe.
Your projection is similar to my most optimistic outlook, with the exception of time. My earliest 5% GDP is 2011 - 2012 time frame. I fear it might take longer.