John Lounsbury
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Investing in 2010: The Opportunity Continues [View article]
Shah Gilani, over at Money Morning, has some of the same investment themes (seekingalpha.com/artic... ) posted this morning. I hope this boat doesn't get too crowded. Shah does emphasize commodities, which neither of us has as a primary theme. I see that as a dollar play and an improving world economy play. Weaker dollar plus stronger world economy both push commodities higher in dollars. If there are any economic disappointments, commodities will go down fast and the dollar will be stronger than many are expecting. So commodities are definitely not a buy and hold for me in 2010. I will be doing some things in that area, but risk control will be key for me.
Investing in 2010: The Opportunity Continues [View article]
Good discussion. I like using Vanguard Health Care (VGHCX) for long-term core holdings and use the ETFs for shorter term positions where I try more aggressive risk management. I also agree with your technology picks and the sector in general - stay long until it's not working anymore. For short-term trading I like the leveraged QQQ (QLD).
I agree that energy is problematic, as are other materials stocks, including precious metals. I think they are better for renting (trading) than owning (long-term positions).
The broad ETFs are better for a core emerging market position, but I like EWZ and FXI for shorter term holdings with more aggressive risk management.
I am hesitant in the cyclicals because I am hesitant on the economy.
Overall, you are thinking along the same lines as I am. That is scary.