Rail Traffic Increase: A Good Gauge of Economic Expansion [View article]
bbro,econdoc - - -
I take an inference from the faster improvement of intermodal (finished goods) than carloads (raw materials). To me this infers that mercantile activity is growing faster than production activity (which would consume raw materials).
This inference is compatible with recent trends in the GDP numbers which show imports again growing faster than exports. Also container counts at U.S. ports have been increasing (finished goods).
Rail Freight Volumes Begin to Level Off [View article]
GCouts - - -
I have two problems with your comment:
1. Wildebeest's charts show data through late April. Did you miss the blue lines?
2. The discussion you copied from the AAR report does not address the questions Wildebeest raised. AAR discusses year-over-year changes only. Wildebeest discusses week-to-week changes in 2010 only.
Rail Freight Volumes Begin to Level Off [View article]
Wildebeest - - -
Thanks for the reply. Your proposal sounds reasonable. If no one else has done the analysis of the correlations between carloads and container shipments I guess it will be left undone. I am curious about that but not compelled to push other work aside to go after it myself.
Rail Freight Volumes Begin to Level Off [View article]
Wildebeest - - -
Good summary.
I have wondered about the relative strength of intermodal units over carload units. Have you seen anyone discuss the reason(s) for this? One possibility is that production is being completed from an inventory of stored raw materials and commodities. If that is the reason I can see two undesirable related possibilities:
* Production profits will be reduced in the future when the raw inventory is replenished. * Production businesses have limited confidence in economic recovery and have selected an inventory draw down rather than restocking for increased production.
Just curious if you have seen anyone discuss this.
Rail Traffic: 2010 Is Looking a Lot Like 2009 [View article]
Wildebeest - - -
I have looked at what I wrote and found this:
<<However, when coal is excluded, carloads of all other commodities are clearly more than 2009.>>
What I intended that to mean was that the first two months of 2010 are clearly more than for 2009. If you inferred something else from my statement then I am guilty of not writing clear syntax.
If you were looking at some other statement, please let me know.
Rail Traffic: 2010 Is Looking a Lot Like 2009 [View article]
Maya - - -
I have several clients that recently bought C in the $3.20 to $3.30 range. I am now recommending they sell half and put a 15% trailing stop loss on the remainder. If C goes to $5, I am recommending the trailing stop be increased to 20%.
Buffett's Big Rail Buy: What It Means for Berkshire Shareholders [View article]
China likes coal. BNI goes from the coal fields of Wyoming to Pacific ports.
On Nov 03 02:15 PM Socialism cannot compete! wrote:
> Only problem with this "energy play" -- the coal pipeline -- is that > this Admarxistration does *not* like coal. Should be buying nuclear > or something else instead. Unless...Buffett is doing this to create > anti-Cap & Tax leverage against the neo-Coms??? Now *that* would > be interesting!!! Last I checked, Warren was pretty liberal. Wonder > if he's changing stripes...perhaps his capitalist self has woken > to the realization that the liberals and their socialist policies > are anti-freedom and anti-capitalism??? Things are getting very interesting > indeed.
Buffett's Big Rail Buy: What It Means for Berkshire Shareholders [View article]
I think Buffet is making an energy play. He has been more and more an energy investor in recent years. Remember his 300% plus gain over a couple of years with Petro China? Utilities and pipelines are part of the energy investment picture. BNI is part of the same strategy, in this case he is buying a coal "pipeline".
I bought BNI in early 2005 in the 40's and got stopped out within a few months for a gain of about 12%. This is one case where stop loss risk control proved counter productive.
Rail Traffic Increase: A Good Gauge of Economic Expansion [View article]
I take an inference from the faster improvement of intermodal (finished goods) than carloads (raw materials). To me this infers that mercantile activity is growing faster than production activity (which would consume raw materials).
This inference is compatible with recent trends in the GDP numbers which show imports again growing faster than exports. Also container counts at U.S. ports have been increasing (finished goods).
Rail Freight Volumes Begin to Level Off [View article]
I have two problems with your comment:
1. Wildebeest's charts show data through late April. Did you miss the blue lines?
2. The discussion you copied from the AAR report does not address the questions Wildebeest raised. AAR discusses year-over-year changes only. Wildebeest discusses week-to-week changes in 2010 only.
Perhaps you should read both reports again?
Rail Freight Volumes Begin to Level Off [View article]
Thanks for the reply. Your proposal sounds reasonable. If no one else has done the analysis of the correlations between carloads and container shipments I guess it will be left undone. I am curious about that but not compelled to push other work aside to go after it myself.
Rail Freight Volumes Begin to Level Off [View article]
Good summary.
I have wondered about the relative strength of intermodal units over carload units. Have you seen anyone discuss the reason(s) for this? One possibility is that production is being completed from an inventory of stored raw materials and commodities. If that is the reason I can see two undesirable related possibilities:
* Production profits will be reduced in the future when the raw inventory is replenished.
* Production businesses have limited confidence in economic recovery and have selected an inventory draw down rather than restocking for increased production.
Just curious if you have seen anyone discuss this.
Rail Traffic: 2010 Is Looking a Lot Like 2009 [View article]
I apologize for interrupting your debate. I guess in this case I have a syntax reading problem, not a writing problem.
This is what can happen when I go back and just look at what has been posted since my last visit and don't recheck the context.
Rail Traffic: 2010 Is Looking a Lot Like 2009 [View article]
I have looked at what I wrote and found this:
<<However, when coal is excluded, carloads of all other commodities are clearly more than 2009.>>
What I intended that to mean was that the first two months of 2010 are clearly more than for 2009. If you inferred something else from my statement then I am guilty of not writing clear syntax.
If you were looking at some other statement, please let me know.
Rail Traffic: 2010 Is Looking a Lot Like 2009 [View article]
I have several clients that recently bought C in the $3.20 to $3.30 range. I am now recommending they sell half and put a 15% trailing stop loss on the remainder. If C goes to $5, I am recommending the trailing stop be increased to 20%.
Buffett's Big Rail Buy: What It Means for Berkshire Shareholders [View article]
On Nov 03 02:15 PM Socialism cannot compete! wrote:
> Only problem with this "energy play" -- the coal pipeline -- is that
> this Admarxistration does *not* like coal. Should be buying nuclear
> or something else instead. Unless...Buffett is doing this to create
> anti-Cap & Tax leverage against the neo-Coms??? Now *that* would
> be interesting!!! Last I checked, Warren was pretty liberal. Wonder
> if he's changing stripes...perhaps his capitalist self has woken
> to the realization that the liberals and their socialist policies
> are anti-freedom and anti-capitalism??? Things are getting very interesting
> indeed.
Buffett's Big Rail Buy: What It Means for Berkshire Shareholders [View article]
I bought BNI in early 2005 in the 40's and got stopped out within a few months for a gain of about 12%. This is one case where stop loss risk control proved counter productive.