John Lounsbury
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Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
Your "bear market bounce" comment is very correct. We will rally (rather than bounce) when investors start to regain confidence in corporate balance sheets and anticipate that the bottom of the recession is within six months. Neither is close at this time. There is strong support in the DJIA 7100 - 7300 area (7286.77 bottom on 10/9/2008 and 7161.15 bottom on 10/27/1997). If we go below 7000 on the Dow, there is no quide to where the bottom will be, because the next chart support is at 2365.1 (bottom of 10/11/1990). Collapse of markets to 1990 lows can only happen in the event of a depression that would not be called "The Great Depression", but would be "The Greatest Depression".
I think that fiscal and monetary policy will succeed in preventing "The Greatest Depression". Thus, nominal DJIA in the 2000's is very unlikely. However, if we ultimately inflate our way out of the trough, how low will the Dow go in inflation adjusted terms?
The Case Against Investing in the Dow Industrials (For Now) [View article]
That being said, very stimulating article.
Five American Innovators to Buy During the Current Downturn [View article]
How about a system that allows inventions to compete for funding based on merit rather than on the basis of how little they will disturb the establishment. I worked most of my career in a large international corporation and saw it do great damage to itself and society because the leaders chose to protect their vested interests rather than accept and promote new technology that eventually proved to be world changing. Unfortunately, this happens all too often.
Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]