RBC Capital: Apple iPhone Sales 'Well Ahead' of Projections

RBC Capital notes their checks suggest Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) may plan to produce 8M iPhones CY07, implying 12-14M unit sales end CY08, well ahead of Apple's publicly stated 18-month 10M goal.

Apple's CY07 plans may include offering higher memory (e.g. 16GB) iPhones, while refreshing existing models at lower cost to stimulate demand. Plans appear to include inventory for Canadian, European launches (est. Q4/CY07"Q2/CY08) and Asia (est. mid CY08). Firm sees a 3G/HSDPA iPhone by Spring CY08, and believes Apple is also planning a higher- resolution display (480x720).

Checks also suggest Apple may be planning an iPod line refresh Q4CY07, including new versions that they believe include: an updated iPod Nano, a new iPod and new video iPod. Some or all may include iPhone-like features (Touchscreen, Widescreen, new UI etc). RBC also expects new devices with more memory and integrated wireless (Wi-Fi).

Based on these checks, the firm is raising their iPhone sales outlook to 13.5M units (10.1M prior) end CY08. They continue to expect iPhone momentum to ease following early sales, reinvigorated subsequently on new launches. F08 estimates adjust to $32.2B revenue ($31.2B prior) and $4.52 EPS ($4.38 prior).

Reiterates Outperform and $160 target.

Notablecalls: Is this enough to push AAPL to a new 52 week high? Sure, why not. iPhone flow looks like the only thing that moves AAPL.

Comments

[Dan Poarch]

"iPhone flow looks like the only thing that moves AAPL." Yup. Because of small minded analysis. People are just getting to know Apple. Should be an interesting couple of years ahead.

[Brewer]

My thoughts exactly. But you have to remember virtually all analysts are stuck in windoze. It used to be a running joke how undervalued Apple was--it's only now at a reasonable value. When Michael Dell make his famously stupid remark during Apple's 'beleagured' days that he would 'sell the company and return the money to the shareholders' Apple would have brought twice it's current market cap had someone like Dell been stupid enough to do that.

The difference with iPod and iPhone is that on these devices, it's clear to everyone (no work required) that they are orders of magnitude better than bad copies like Zune, or idiotic implementations such as windoze mobile. With the computers (still the CORE of the business) you have a fairly deep understanding of comptuers to see the differences. Windows got one thing right, it was good enough to fool most people. To top if off, 99% of the comptuer geeks get very close minded to what they know (which is 95% of the time, only Windoze.) But this is rapidly changing. Go to any tech conference, you will see at least 1/2 Mac notebooks being carted around.

Now that Macs run ALL operating systems (Apple isn't afraid you would prefer WIndows!) and they actually sell for less than a comparable (spec wise at least) Dell, it's only a matter of time until Apple goes to #1 supplier and then on to rule the market.

[Macbth]

"iPhone flow looks like the only thing that moves AAPL."
I don't think they have heard about the iPod or Mac's :LOL